Opinion polling for the Spanish general election, 2004

In the run up to the 2004 Spanish general election, various organisations carried out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Spain. Results of such polls are displayed in this article.

The date range for these opinion polls are from the previous general election, held on 12 March 2000, to the day the next election was held, on 14 March 2004.

Party vote

Graphical summary

Poll results

Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. When a specific poll does not show a data figure for a party, the party's cell corresponding to that poll is shown empty.

Color key:

  Multi-scenario poll   Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Last date of polling						Margin of error	Sample size	Lead
General Election	March 14, 2004	37.7	42.6	5.0	3.2	1.6			4.9
Sigma Dos (21:00)	March 14, 2004	37.5	42.7	5.3	3.1	1.7			5.2
Ipsos-Eco Consulting	March 14, 2004	36.9	41.4	6.3	3.0	1.4			4.5
Sigma Dos (20:00)	March 14, 2004	38.5	41.0	5.4	3.2	1.6			2.5
TNS Demoscopia	March 13, 2004	40.6	38.3	6.5	3.0	1.5			2.3
Opina	March 12, 2004	39.5	40.5	6.1	3.0	1.2			1.0
Sigma Dos	March 12, 2004	40.3	39.6	5.2	3.3	1.8	±3.2 pp	1,000	0.7
Sigma Dos	March 10, 2004	41.2	38.4	5.3	3.3	1.8	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.8
Citigate Sanchís	March 8, 2004	42.8	37.3	5.7	3.1	1.5			5.5
Opina	March 7, 2004	40.5	38.0	5.8	3.6	1.4	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.5
Opina	March 6, 2004	40.5	37.0	5.8	3.8	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Sigma Dos	March 6, 2004	42.1	37.6	5.3	3.4	1.8	±3.2 pp	1,000	4.5
Opina	March 5, 2004	41.0	37.0	6.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Celeste-Tel	March 5, 2004	42.9	37.2	5.9	3.5	1.7		2,404	5.7
Opina	March 4, 2004	41.5	36.5	7.0	3.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
Opina	March 3, 2004	41.5	36.5	6.5	3.0	1.6	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
Vox Pública	March 3, 2004	42.5	37.3	7.1	3.2	1.5	±2.6 pp	1,500	5.2
Noxa	March 3, 2004	41.4	39.2	6.3	3.0	2.1	±2.6 pp	1,500	2.2
Opina	March 2, 2004	41.0	36.5	6.5	3.2	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Sigma Dos	March 2, 2004	42.8	36.6	5.7	3.3	1.8	±0.9 pp	12,500	6.2
Opina	March 1, 2004	40.5	36.5	6.5	3.2	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Opina	March 1, 2004	42.0	38.0	6.3	3.0	1.7	±1.6 pp	4,000	4.0
Opina	February 29, 2004	40.5	36.5	7.0	3.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Ipsos-Eco Consulting	February 29, 2004	41.3	37.4	6.5	3.4	1.4			3.9
Citigate Sanchís	February 29, 2004	44.4	36.8	5.6	3.2	2.1			7.6
Opina	February 28, 2004	41.0	36.5	6.5	3.8	1.6	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Opina	February 27, 2004	41.5	36.5	6.4	3.8	1.6	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
Celeste-Tel	February 27, 2004	42.2	36.1	5.4	3.9	1.8			8.1
Atento STC	February 27, 2004	40.4	37.5	5.0					2.9
Opina	February 26, 2004	41.5	36.5	6.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
Sigma Dos	February 25, 2004	43.3	35.8	5.8	3.6	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	7.5
TNS Demoscopia	February 25, 2004	42.2	37.2	7.0	3.1	1.5	±1.1 pp	12,760	5.0
Gallup	February 20, 2004	43.9	35.1	6.1	3.2	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,036	8.8
Metra Seis	February 16, 2004	42.0	36.2	5.8	3.4	1.9		5,200	5.8
CIS	February 15, 2004	42.2	35.5	6.6	3.7	1.8	±0.6 pp	24,109	6.7
Sigma Dos	February 14, 2004	43.5	35.4	5.2	3.8	1.6	±3.2 pp	1,000	8.1
Noxa	February 12, 2004	42.6	38.6	5.8	2.8	2.2	±2.9 pp	1,200	4.0
Opina	February 11, 2004	41.0	38.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Celeste-Tel	February 8, 2004	43.9	35.8	5.4	3.9	1.8			8.1
Sigma Dos	February 8, 2004	44.3	34.8	5.6	3.6	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	9.5
Opina	January 31, 2004	41.0	37.0	4.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Opina	January 25, 2004	42.5	37.0	5.5	3.5	1.5			5.5
Gallup	January 22, 2004	41.9	36.2	6.7	4.3	1.7	±2.2 pp	2,028	5.7
Vox Pública	January 21, 2004	43.0	38.0	5.5	3.0	1.5	±2.6 pp	1,501	5.0
Opina	January 16, 2004	42.0	38.0	4.5	3.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Noxa	January 9, 2004	42.6	36.5	7.2	3.0	2.1	±3.2 pp	1,000	6.1
Sigma Dos	January 4, 2004	44.6	33.9	6.2	3.8	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	10.7
Opina	January 2, 2004	42.0	40.0	6.0	3.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
Gallup	December 19, 2003	44.1	35.2	6.1	3.6	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,025	8.9
Opina	December 7, 2003	42.0	39.0	5.5	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Sigma Dos	December 7, 2003	44.8	33.7	6.1	3.9	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	11.1
Celeste-Tel	December 7, 2003	43.0	35.5	5.9	3.6	2.0			7.5
Metra Seis	December 2, 2003	44.5	33.1	6.3	4.1	1.4			11.4
Gallup	November 25, 2003	43.3	36.5	6.7	3.5	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,032	6.8
Opina	November 19, 2003	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
CIS	October 31, 2003	42.4	34.7	5.9	4.0	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,488	7.7
Gallup	October 22, 2003	42.4	36.8	6.2	3.4	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,016	5.6
GETS	October 2, 2003	43.8	34.3	6.4	3.8	1.5			9.5
Sigma Dos	September 28, 2003	43.8	35.3	5.1	4.0	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	8.5
Opina	September 24, 2003	42.0	39.0	6.5	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Vox Pública	September 24, 2003	44.2	37.1	6.0	3.0	1.6	±2.6 pp	1,502	7.1
Gallup	September 24, 2003	43.0	35.3	7.2	3.5	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,027	7.7
Opina	September 10, 2003	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Opina	September 7, 2003	42.0	38.0	6.5	5.5	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Celeste-Tel	September 7, 2003	43.2	35.3	5.9	3.7	1.9			7.9
Opina	September 2, 2003	42.0	39.0	6.0	5.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Opina	August 27, 2003	42.0	39.0	6.5	5.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Gallup	August 18, 2003	43.6	36.5	5.4	3.7	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,026	7.1
Gallup	July 24, 2003	42.9	37.4	5.9	3.4	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,032	5.5
Sigma Dos	July 20, 2003	42.8	35.9	5.6	3.9	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	6.9
CIS	July 8, 2003	41.2	35.2	6.3	3.8	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,476	6.0
Ibecom	July 6, 2003	43.6	33.9	4.4	4.3	1.3			9.7
Opina	July 1, 2003	40.0	39.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.0
Sigma Dos	June 26, 2003	42.6	35.4	6.2	4.0	1.6	±3.2 pp	1,000	7.2
Vox Pública	June 25, 2003	41.6	37.5	5.9	3.1	1.2	±2.6 pp	1,502	4.1
Gallup	June 20, 2003	40.7	37.2	7.4	3.2	1.2	±2.2 pp	2,024	3.5
Opina	June 11, 2003	42.0	39.0	4.5	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Opina	May 28, 2003	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Gallup	May 26, 2003	38.4	38.8	6.8	2.9	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,026	0.4
Municipal Elections	May 25, 2003	34.3	34.8	6.1	3.4	1.8			0.5
Opina	May 15, 2003	39.0	39.0	6.0	4.0	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
CIS	April 30, 2003	37.3	39.5	6.3	3.3	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,494	2.2
Sigma Dos	April 27, 2003	41.2	38.7	5.0	3.7	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.5
Noxa	April 24, 2003	39.3	42.3	6.1	3.2	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	3.0
Ipsos-Eco Consulting	April 24, 2003	33.9	39.4	6.1	3.8	1.7	±2.1 pp	2,254	5.5
Opina	April 23, 2003	38.0	42.0	6.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Gallup	April 22, 2003	35.8	43.2	6.3	3.5	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,020	7.4
Opina	April 2, 2003	36.5	43.0	6.0	4.2	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.5
Vox Pública	April 2, 2003	35.9	42.6	6.1	3.6	1.5	±2.6 pp	1,503	6.7
Sigma Dos	March 30, 2003	38.6	40.7	5.1	3.6	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.1
Opina	March 26, 2003	36.0	42.0	6.2	4.2	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Gallup	March 25, 2003	38.6	42.1	5.1	3.8	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,016	3.5
Opina	March 21, 2003	37.0	43.0	6.0	4.0	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Opina	March 8, 2003	37.0	42.5	5.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.5
Gallup	February 24, 2003	39.7	39.8	5.5	3.7	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,028	0.1
Sigma Dos	February 20, 2003	38.5	40.2	5.6	3.9	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	1.7
Opina	February 19, 2003	38.0	42.0	5.5	4.0	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Opina	February 6, 2003	38.0	42.0	5.0	4.0	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Opina	February 3, 2003	40.0	42.0	4.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
CIS	January 26, 2003	39.8	37.3	5.5	3.7	1.5	±2.0 pp	2,480	2.5
Gallup	January 23, 2003	39.6	39.5	4.9	3.3	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,034	0.1
Opina	January 22, 2003	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	1.6	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Sigma Dos	January 20, 2003	41.6	38.6	4.9	3.9	1.3	±3.2 pp	1,000	3.0
Vox Pública	January 16, 2003	40.4	39.0	6.0	3.3	1.1	±2.6 pp	1,501	1.4
Opina	January 8, 2003	41.0	41.0	4.8	4.5	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Gallup	December 23, 2002	38.2	40.8	5.0	4.0	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,011	2.6
Opina	December 17, 2002	39.0	42.0	5.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Sigma Dos	December 11, 2002	41.7	38.8	4.7	3.7	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	2.9
Opina	December 4, 2002	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Gallup	November 25, 2002	40.6	39.8	5.4	3.3	1.2	±2.2 pp	2,018	0.8
Opina	November 24, 2002	40.0	40.0	5.0	4.5	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Opina	November 20, 2002	42.0	40.0	5.0	4.8	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
Sigma Dos	November 8, 2002	41.9	38.4	4.6	4.0	1.4	±2.2 pp	3,400	3.5
Opina	November 6, 2002	41.0	41.0	5.0	4.0	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Opina	October 29, 2002	41.0	41.0	5.2	4.0	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Gallup	October 24, 2002	42.7	37.2	5.1	3.8	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,018	5.5
Opina	October 22, 2002	41.0	39.5	5.1	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.5
Ibecom	October 21, 2002	43.5	38.7	2.9	3.1	1.1			4.8
CIS	October 21, 2002	41.5	37.3	4.6	3.7	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,489	4.2
Sigma Dos	October 14, 2002	41.8	37.9	5.0	4.2	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	3.9
Opina	October 9, 2002	42.0	38.5	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Vox Pública	October 9, 2002	42.4	38.7	4.8	3.3	1.2	±2.6 pp	1,507	3.7
CIS	October 9, 2002	41.0	37.1	5.4	4.0	1.5	±1.0 pp	10,476	3.9
GETS	October 3, 2002	41.6	36.6	5.6	4.4	1.5			5.0
Opina	September 29, 2002	42.0	39.0	4.5	3.8	1.6	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Opina	September 25, 2002	41.0	39.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
Ipsos-Eco Consulting	September 13, 2002	40.7	37.6	5.7	4.0	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,010	3.1
Opina	September 10, 2002	42.0	39.5	5.0	4.0	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.5
Opina	August 27, 2002	41.0	41.0	5.5	4.0	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	Tie
Gallup	August 23, 2002	42.1	38.0	5.5	3.1	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,008	4.1
Gallup	July 29, 2002	42.5	38.0	5.7	3.4	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,013	4.5
CIS	July 21, 2002	41.0	36.3	5.0	4.2	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,482	4.7
Sigma Dos	July 14, 2002	43.3	36.2	5.7	3.9	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	7.1
Opina	June 27, 2002	41.0	40.0	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.0
Vox Pública	June 26, 2002	41.9	38.7	5.9	3.1	1.1	±2.6 pp	1,504	3.2
Gallup	June 24, 2002	42.7	36.8	5.7	4.2	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,016	5.9
Opina	June 21, 2002	41.0	39.5	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.5
Opina	June 5, 2002	41.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
Opina	May 22, 2002	41.0	40.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	1.0
Gallup	May 22, 2002	42.3	37.6	5.3	3.6	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,010	4.7
Opina	May 8, 2002	41.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.0
Sigma Dos	May 5, 2002	43.2	37.2	4.7	3.5	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	6.0
Opina	April 24, 2002	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Gallup	April 23, 2002	41.8	37.6	5.0	4.2	1.7	±2.2 pp	2,017	4.2
CIS	April 21, 2002	42.4	34.4	5.4	4.4	1.5	±2.0 pp	2,498	8.0
Vox Pública	April 17, 2002	42.5	37.6	5.2	3.9	1.4	±2.6 pp	1,510	4.9
Opina	April 10, 2002	42.0	38.5	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Gallup	March 27, 2002	41.8	36.9	5.8	3.7	1.7	±2.2 pp	2,029	4.9
Opina	March 26, 2002	42.0	38.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.0
Opina	March 12, 2002	42.0	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Opina	February 27, 2002	43.5	38.0	5.0	4.5	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.5
Gallup	February 27, 2002	43.1	37.1	5.0	3.4	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,030	6.0
Opina	February 13, 2002	42.5	38.0	5.0	5.0	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Sigma Dos	February 11, 2002	43.9	34.2	5.8	4.0	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	9.7
Vox Pública	February 5, 2002	44.1	36.8	4.9	3.4	1.7	±2.6 pp	1,506	7.3
CIS	January 31, 2002	43.9	34.2	5.8	4.0	1.5	±2.0 pp	2,498	9.7
Opina	January 30, 2002	43.5	38.0	4.5	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.5
Gallup	January 29, 2002	43.2	36.8	5.4	3.5	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,031	6.4
Opina	January 16, 2002	43.5	38.0	5.0	5.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.5
Opina	January 3, 2002	43.5	38.5	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
Gallup	December 28, 2001	42.2	38.4	5.2	3.4	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,020	3.8
Sigma Dos	December 9, 2001	44.7	35.5	4.4	3.6	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	9.2
Opina	December 5, 2001	41.5	39.0	5.5	5.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	2.5
Gallup	November 28, 2001	44.2	36.8	5.3	3.5	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,021	7.4
Opina	November 20, 2001	42.5	39.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Opina	November 7, 2001	43.0	38.5	5.5	4.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Gallup	October 30, 2001	43.9	37.0	4.9	3.8	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,016	6.9
CIS	October 29, 2001	43.5	34.0	5.5	4.5	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,499	9.5
Opina	October 24, 2001	44.0	38.5	5.0	4.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.5
Vox Pública	October 23, 2001	44.5	37.9	5.6	3.7	1.4	±2.6 pp	1,509	6.6
GETS	October 4, 2001	42.4	36.3	5.6	4.1	1.8			6.1
Opina	October 2, 2001	43.5	40.0	5.5	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Gallup	September 27, 2001	42.3	37.2	5.5	4.0	1.6	±2.2 pp	2,027	5.1
Opina	September 18, 2001	43.5	39.0	5.0	4.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Opina	September 5, 2001	44.0	38.0	5.0	4.6	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Gallup	July 30, 2001	42.1	38.3	5.1	3.4	2.0	±2.2 pp	2,024	3.8
CIS	July 18, 2001	43.6	34.9	5.6	3.7	1.5	±2.0 pp	2,485	8.7
Opina	June 30, 2001	43.5	40.0	5.0	4.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Vox Pública	June 28, 2001	44.0	37.1	5.9	3.2	1.2	±2.6 pp	1,506	6.9
Gallup	June 27, 2001	43.6	36.8	5.2	3.6	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,008	6.8
Sigma Dos	June 24, 2001	43.4	35.8	5.4	3.9	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	7.6
Opina	June 13, 2001	44.0	38.0	6.0	4.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Opina	May 30, 2001	43.0	39.5	5.0	4.5	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Gallup	May 25, 2001	45.0	34.3	6.3	4.3	1.4	±2.2 pp	2,031	10.7
Opina	May 14, 2001	44.0	38.0	5.5	4.5	2.3	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
La Vanguardia	May 2, 2001	43.5	35.1						8.4
CIS	April 30, 2001	43.5	35.2	4.9	4.0	1.3	±2.0 pp	2,492	8.3
Gallup	April 25, 2001	43.4	37.6	4.9	3.4	1.5	±2.2 pp	2,026	5.8
Opina	April 24, 2001	44.0	38.5	5.5	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.5
Vox Pública	April 18, 2001	43.7	38.6	3.7	3.4	1.5	±2.6 pp	1,514	5.1
Opina	April 11, 2001	43.0	40.0	4.5	4.5	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Opina	April 4, 2001	42.0	37.0	5.0	4.0	1.5		11,000	5.0
Gallup	March 30, 2001	43.4	35.6	5.5	3.7	1.3	±2.2 pp	2,026	7.8
Opina	March 7, 2001	43.0	38.5	4.5	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	4.5
Gallup	February 26, 2001	42.4	37.5	5.4	3.4	1.7	±2.2 pp	2,036	4.9
Opina	February 21, 2001	43.0	40.0	4.5	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Sigma Dos	February 18, 2001	43.5	35.9	4.6	4.1	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	7.6
Opina	February 7, 2001	43.0	40.0	5.0	4.5	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.0
Vox Pública	January 31, 2001	43.5	37.5	4.0	3.5	1.5	±2.6 pp	1,519	6.0
Gallup	January 27, 2001	41.9	37.0	5.3	4.4	1.7	±2.2 pp	2,028	4.9
La Vanguardia	January 25, 2001	42.7	35.9						6.8
Opina	January 24, 2001	44.0	39.0	4.5	4.5	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	5.0
CIS	January 23, 2001	43.5	36.2	5.1	3.9	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,486	7.3
Opina	January 10, 2001	42.0	38.5	5.0	4.9	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	3.5
Sigma Dos	January 7, 2001	44.6	36.2	4.2	4.0	1.4	±3.2 pp	1,000	8.4
Gallup	December 30, 2000	44.4	36.9	5.4	3.7	1.9			7.5
Opina	December 20, 2000	44.5	38.5	4.2	4.3	1.8	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Opina	December 5, 2000	44.5	38.5	5.0	4.0	2.0	±3.1 pp	1,000	6.0
Opina	November 22, 2000	45.0	38.0	3.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	7.0
Opina	November 7, 2000	44.0	36.0	4.0	4.0	1.5	±3.1 pp	1,000	8.0
Vox Pública	October 31, 2000	44.0	36.7	4.6	4.1	1.2	±2.9 pp	1,210	7.3
Sigma Dos	October 29, 2000	46.2	34.2	4.9	3.2	1.5	±3.2 pp	1,000	12.0
Opina	October 25, 2000	42.2	32.8	5.1	3.3	1.7	±3.1 pp	1,000	9.4
La Vanguardia	October 24, 2000	42.6	36.0						6.6
CIS	October 22, 2000	43.7	36.2	5.5	3.8	1.5	±2.0 pp	2,497	7.5
Demoscopia	October 9, 2000	45.0	35.8	6.9	4.4	1.4			9.2
GETS	October 5, 2000	42.9	33.7	5.6	4.0	1.3			9.2
Opitel	October 2, 2000	44.8	34.9	4.6	4.5	1.0			9.9
Gallup	September 27, 2000	45.0	34.9	5.3	4.1	1.3	±2.2 pp	2,025	10.1
La Vanguardia	July 20, 2000	47.1	31.5						15.6
CIS	July 18, 2000	46.6	31.6	5.9	4.3	1.4	±2.0 pp	2,493	15.0
Sigma Dos	July 16, 2000	45.7	33.6	5.9	3.5	1.6	±3.2 pp	1,000	12.1
Vox Pública	June 30, 2000	46.5	30.5	5.6	3.8	1.0	±2.4 pp	2,300	16.0
La Vanguardia	May 6, 2000	47.5	31.1						16.4
CIS	May 3, 2000	45.3	32.7	5.9	4.0	1.2	±2.0 pp	2,491	12.6
General Election	March 12, 2000	44.5	34.2	5.4	4.2	1.5			10.3

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 176 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Congress of Deputies.

Color key:

  Poll conducted after legal ban on opinion polls   Exit poll

176 seats needed for a majority

Polling firm/Link	Last date of polling
General Election	March 14, 2004	148	164	5	10	7
Sigma Dos (20:00)	March 14, 2004	153/161	152/159	6/7	10/11	7
Ipsos-Eco	March 14, 2004	150/154	154/158	9/11	10/12	6/7
TNS Demoscopia	March 13, 2004	168/170	140/143	8/10	10/11	7
Opina	March 12, 2004	154/160	151/159	9/10	10/11	7/8
Opina	March 7, 2004	161/166	140/145	11/12	10/11	7/8
Celeste-Tel	March 7, 2004	171/176	135/141	8	11/12	7/8
Opina	March 6, 2004	168/172	134/141	11	10/11	7/8
Sigma Dos	March 6, 2004	168/173	138/144	6/8	11	7
Opina	March 3, 2004	163/171	135/143	11/12	10/11	7/8
Vox Pública	March 3, 2004	169/173	135/140	10/12	10/11	7
Noxa	March 3, 2004	162/167	143/147	9/10	10	7
Sigma Dos	March 2, 2004	172/177	134/139	7/10	11	7
Opina	February 29, 2004	164/169	138/144	12	10/11	7/8
Celeste-Tel	February 27, 2004	170/171	141/142	6/7	11/13
Opina	February 26, 2004	166/172	136/144	10/12	10/12	6/8
TNS Demoscopia	February 25, 2004	174/177	133/137	8/10	10/11	7
CIS	February 15, 2004	176	131	10	12	7
Noxa	February 12, 2004	164/169	138/142	9/10	9	8/9
Celeste-Tel	February 8, 2004	174/175	136/137	5/6	12/13
Opina	January 25, 2004	171/175	135/138	8/11	12
Vox Pública	January 21, 2004	170/175	138/142	8/10	10/11
Noxa	January 9, 2004	174	137	11	10	9
La Vanguardia	November 25, 2002	153	154	7	14
Vox Pública	October 9, 2002	165/170	145/150
La Vanguardia	June 26, 2002	158	145	9	13
La Vanguardia	May 20, 2002	162	142	8	15
CIS[LV]	October 29, 2001	180	125	8	16	7
La Vanguardia	October 28, 2001	167	138
CIS[LV]	July 18, 2001	178	129
CIS[LV]	April 30, 2001	179	131
La Vanguardia	April 20, 2001	180	128
CIS[LV]	January 23, 2001	179	132
La Vanguardia	January 18, 2001	177	132
CIS[LV]	October 22, 2000	173/179	131/134	7/8	14	7
La Vanguardia	October 17, 2000	168/176	133/139	7	15	7
La Vanguardia	August 7, 2000	173	138	8	14	6
La Vanguardia	July 23, 2000	170/177	133/142	6/7	14/15
CIS[LV]	July 18, 2000	186	119/120	9	15/16	7
La Vanguardia	July 13, 2000	188	119
La Vanguardia	April 29, 2000	189	118
CIS[LV]	May 3, 2000	185	125
General Election	March 12, 2000	183	125	8	15	7

Notes

^LV Identifies seat projections done by La Vanguardia over a poll's vote estimations.