New Hampshire gubernatorial election, 2010

November 2, 2010



Nominee	John H. Lynch	John Stephen
Party	Democratic	Republican
Popular vote	239,390	205,433
Percentage	52.6%	45.1%

Governor before election

John H. Lynch
Democratic

Elected Governor

John H. Lynch
Democratic

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2009

The New Hampshire gubernatorial election of 2010 was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic Governor John Lynch was re-elected to a fourth term in 2010.^[1]

Background

New Hampshire is one of only two states where the Governor serves for a two-year term, the other being neighboring Vermont. Lynch was re-elected by landslide margins in 2006 and 2008, and has enjoyed historically high approval ratings. In early 2010, his approval rating showed a downward trend, with an April poll indicating that his approval had fallen below 50% (44% approve, 42% disapprove).^[2] After the primary elections in mid-September, Lynch's approval rating rebounded (51% approve, 38% disapprove).^[3]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

John Lynch, incumbent Governor^[4]
Timothy Robertson, State Representative
Frank Sullivan

Results

Democratic primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Lynch (Incumbent)	49,832	87.5
	Democratic	Timothy Robertson	3,771	6.6
	Democratic	Frank Sullivan	3,377	5.9
Total votes			56,980	97.3

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Jack Kimball, businessman^[6]
Frank Robert Emiro Sr., State Representative
John Stephen, former Health and Human Services Commissioner^[7]
Karen Testerman, conservative activist^[6]

Declined

Kelly Ayotte, New Hampshire Attorney General^[8]
Frank Guinta, Mayor of Manchester^[9]
Chuck Morse, Former State Senator^[10]
John E. Sununu, Former U.S. Senator

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	Jack Kimball	John Stephen	Karen Testerman
Public Policy Polling	September 11–12, 2010	24%	45%	8%
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	15%	26%	5%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	10%	29%	15%

Results

Republican primary results^[5]
Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	John Stephen	77,962	61.6
	Republican	Jack Kimball	31,581	24.9
	Republican	Karen Testerman	12,708	10.0
	Republican	Frank Emiro	4,394	3.5
Total votes			126,645	96.7

General election

Candidates

John Babiarz, Libertarian
John Lynch, Democratic
John Stephen, Republican

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
Cook Political Report	Solid D^[11]	October 12, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Leans D^[12]	October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics	Safe D^[13]
Sabato's Crystal Ball	Safe D^[14]	September 30, 2010
CQ Politics	Safe D^[15]	October 12, 2010
Election Projection	Solid D hold^[16]	October 12, 2010

Polling

Poll source	Dates administered	John Lynch (D)	John Stephen (R)
Rasmussen Reports	October 27, 2010	51%	45%
WMUR/UNH	October 7–12, 2010	51%	38%
American Research Group	October 3–5, 2010	51%	41%
Granite State Poll	October 1, 2010	51%	34%
American Research Group	September 22–26, 2010	42%	40%
Rasmussen Reports	September 15, 2010	48%	46%
Public Policy Polling	September 11–12, 2010	51%	39%
Rasmussen Reports	August 5, 2010	50%	39%
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	51%	34%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	47%	35%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	47%	36%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	47%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	50%	35%
Granite State Poll	January 27-February 3, 2010	50%	30%

Hypothetical polling

With Kimball

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Jack Kimball (R)
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	52%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	50%	31%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	47%	35%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	50%	34%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	51%	32%
Research 2000	February 1–3, 2010	59%	13%
Rasmussen Reports	January 12, 2010	51%	32%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	52%	31%

With Morse

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Chuck Morse (R)
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	51%	29%

With Sununu

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	John Sununu (R)
Granite State Poll	September 25-October 2, 2009	50%	37%
Rasmussen Reports	September 14, 2009	48%	43%

With Testerman

Poll Source	Dates Administered	John Lynch (D)	Karen Testerman (R)
Public Policy Polling	July 23–25, 2010	52%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	May 26, 2010	51%	32%
Public Policy Polling	April 17–18, 2010	47%	29%
Rasmussen Reports	April 7, 2010	50%	33%
Rasmussen Reports	March 8, 2010	54%	28%
Rasmussen Reports	January 12, 2010	53%	30%

Results

2010 New Hampshire Governor general election
Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Democratic	John Lynch (Incumbent)	240,346	52.63%	-17.57%
	Republican	John Stephen	205,616	45.03%	+17.43%
	Libertarian	John Babiarz	10,089	2.21%	+0.02%
	Write-ins		537	<0.01%
Majority			34,730
Turnout			456,588
	Democratic hold		Swing

References

↑ "NH Gov. John Lynch Running for 4th Term - FOX44NOW.COM - Burlington/Plattsburgh News, Weather and Sports". FOX44NOW.COM. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2010/PPP_Release_NH_423.pdf
↑ http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NH_916.pdf
↑ "Gov. Lynch could face difficult re-election bid » New Hampshire » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. April 18, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
1 2 "New Hampshire Gubernatorial Primary Results". Politico. September 14, 2010. Retrieved September 14, 2010.
1 2 John Distaso (December 9, 2009). "Testerman steps into the ring in governor's race". The Union Leader. Retrieved January 1, 2010.
↑ "John Stephen for Governor | New Leadership for New Hampshire". Johnstephen.com. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
↑ "Republicans land top recruit in New Hampshire - The Scorecard". Politico.Com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
↑ "Frank Guinta for Congress". Teamguinta.com. 2010-07-29. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
↑ "Downing runs for sheriff, Morse for NH Senate » Latest News » EagleTribune.com, North Andover, MA". Eagletribune.com. Retrieved 2010-08-21.
↑ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved November 1, 2010.
↑ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
↑ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
↑ "The Battle for Capitol Hill - 2010 Senate". ElectionProjection.com. Retrieved October 12, 2010.

External links

Election Division at New Hampshire Secretary of State
New Hampshire Governor Candidates at Project Vote Smart
Campaign contributions for 2010 New Hampshire Governor from Follow the Money
New Hampshire Governor 2010 from OurCampaigns.com
2010 New Hampshire Gubernatorial General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
Election 2010: New Hampshire Governor from Rasmussen Reports
2010 New Hampshire Governor Race from Real Clear Politics
2010 New Hampshire Governor's Race from CQ Politics
Race Profile in The New York Times

Official campaign sites

(2009 ←) 2010 United States elections (→ 2011)

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