Probabilistic argumentation

The name "probabilistic argumentation" has been used to refer to a particular theory of reasoning that encompasses uncertainty and ignorance, combining probability theory and deductive logic, and thus consisting in a probabilistic logic (Haenni, Kohlas & Lehmann 2000).

Probabilistic argumentation theory encounters a problem when used to determine the occurrence of Black Swan events since, by definition, those events are so improbable as to seem impossible. As such, probabilistic arguments should be considered fallacious arguments known as appeals to probability.

References

• Haenni, R.; Kohlas, J.; Lehmann, N. (2000), "Probabilistic argumentation systems", in J. Kohlas and S. Moral, Handbook of Defeasible Reasoning and Uncertainty Management Systems (PDF), Dordrecht: Volume 5: Algorithms for Uncertainty and Defeasible Reasoning, Kluwer, pp. 221–287 
• D.M. Gabbay and O.Rodrigues, "Probabilistic Argumentation: An Equational Approach", Logica Universalis, 2015. doi:10.1007/s11787-015-0120-1