Next Andalusian parliamentary election

Next Andalusian parliamentary election
Andalusia
On or before 21 May 2019
All 109 seats of the Parliament of Andalusia
55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Susana Díaz Juan Manuel Moreno Teresa Rodríguez
Party PSOE–A PP–A Podemos
Leader since 7 September 2013 1 March 2014 9 February 2015
Leader's seat Seville Málaga Cádiz
Last election 47 seats, 35.4% 33 seats, 26.7% 15 seats, 14.9%
Current seats 47 33 15
Seats needed Increase8 Increase22 Increase40
 
Leader Juan Marín Antonio Maíllo
Party C's IULV–CA
Leader since 6 February 2014 16 June 2013
Leader's seat Seville Seville
Last election 9 seats, 9.3% 5 seats, 6.9%
Current seats 9 5
Seats needed Increase46 Increase50

Most voted party by province.
Incumbent President

Susana Díaz
PSOE–A

The next Andalusian parliamentary election will be held no later than Thursday, 21 May 2019, to elect the 11th Parliament of Andalusia, the regional legislature of the Spanish autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament will be up for election.

After the result of the March 2015 election, parliamentary deadlock as a result of the absence of majorities resulted in political blockade settling in for several weeks. However, a deal signed between the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE–A) and Citizens (C's) after the 2015 Spanish regional and municipal elections allowed Susana Díaz to be re-elected as regional premier in June 2015.[1]

Electoral system

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia are elected in 8 multi-member districts, corresponding to Andalusia's eight provinces, using the D'Hondt method and a closed-list proportional representation system. Each district is entitled to an initial minimum of 8 seats, with the remaining 45 seats allocated among the eight provinces in proportion to their populations, on the condition that the number of seats in each district do not exceed 2 times those of any other.

Voting is on the basis of universal suffrage in a secret ballot. Only lists polling above 3% of the total vote in each district (which includes blank ballots—for none of the above) are entitled to enter the seat distribution.[2][3]

Date of the election

Latest possible date

The next parliamentary election cannot be held later than Thursday 21 May 2019. This date is determined as follows:

Law Requirement Comments
Statute of Autonomy: Article 101.2[3] Parliament is elected for four years. Deputies' term shall end four years after election (...). The 2015 election was held on 22 March 2015. Four years after 22 March 2015 is 22 March 2019.
Statute of Autonomy: Article 104.3[3] Election will be held between 30 and 60 days after the term's end. 60 days after 22 March 2019 is 21 May 2019.

Opinion polling

Party vote

Poll results are listed in the tables below in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first, and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. The lead column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date		 Sample
size		 TO Lead
Deimos Statistics 22.02.16–25.02.16 80,567 ? 33.7 25.7 18.1 15.8 4.3 8.0
CADPEA 18.01.16–09.02.16 1,200 72.3% 32.1 25.3 17.2 13.0 8.0 6.8
General Election 20.12.15 N/A 69.1% 31.5 29.1 16.9 13.8 5.8 2.4
Celeste-Tel 07.09.15–28.09.15 1,200 ? 37.7 25.8 14.1 12.0 5.3 11.9
CADPEA 29.06.15–18.07.15 1,200 70.5% 32.5 21.9 19.2 14.1 6.0 10.6
Municipal Elections 24.05.15 N/A 61.2% 34.3 30.2 — 5.4 11.0 4.1
Metroscopia 11.05.15–12.05.15 1,000 ? 37.1 20.0 15.1 15.5 6.7 17.1
Regional Election 22.03.15 N/A 62.3% 35.4 26.7 14.9 9.3 6.9 8.7

Seat projections

Opinion polls showing seat projections are displayed in the table below. The highest seat figures in each polling survey have their background shaded in the leading party's colour. In the instance that there is a tie, then no figure is shaded. 55 seats are required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Polling firm/Link Fieldwork/
publication date
Deimos Statistics 22.02.16–25.02.16 41 30 19 17 2
General Election 20.12.15 (39) (35) (17) (14) (4)
Celeste-Tel 07.09.15–28.09.15 48 31 14 13 3
Regional Election 22.03.15 47 33 15 9 5

References

  1. ↑ "Susana Díaz will be invested on Thursday after the agreement with Citizens" (in Spanish). El Mundo. 2015-06-09.
  2. ↑ "Law 1/1986, of 2 January, electoral of Andalusia".
  3. 1 2 3 "Statute of Autonomy of Andalusia (2007); Title IV. Chapter I. The Parliament of Andalusia". noticias.juridicas.com. Retrieved 2015-03-28.
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