Michel Garder

Michel Garder (20 October 1916 – 3 May 1993) was a French author and military man who predicted in 1965 that the Soviet Union would collapse by 1970. He made this prediction in his book L'Agonie du Regime en Russie Sovietique (The Death Struggle of the Regime in Soviet Russia).

The Death Struggle of the Regime in Soviet Russia

In his book, Garder stated that the death agony of the Soviet union was evident in "the conflict between a decaying regime that no longer has any justification other than the personal interests of those who profit by it" and "the upper strata of the technological intelligentsia."^[1]

Garder argued that this contest cannot end in a compromise. There is not enough flexibility in the dictatorship. He then predicted a collapse: probably a non-communist and perhaps anti-communist take-over with the help of the military elites. "Recognition of the harebrained absurdity of a Marxist-Leninist religion has long ago become inevitable for the true elite of the country and is from day to day dawning upon millions of "average persons." There will come a moment when the technological masses "will feel impelled to seize power."^[1]

Reception

In a symposium launched to review the book, Yale Professor Frederick C. Barghoorn dismissed Garder's book as "the latest in a long line of apocalyptic predictions of the collapse of communism." He warns that "great revolutions are most infrequent and that successful political systems are tenacious and adaptive." In addition, the reviewer of the book, Michael Tatu, disapproved of the "apocalyptic character" of such a forecast and is almost apologetic for treating it seriously.^[1]

Bibliography

• Garder, Michel (1966). A History of the Soviet Army. Pall Mall P. ASIN: B0006D9TO4. 
• Félix Bonafé, Jean-Paul Delbert (1995). Michel Garder. Soldat résistant Franc-Maçon de tradition. ISBN 978-0000989444, ISBN 0000989444. 

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